摘要
      近几十年来，由于许多社会抗生素消费量的增加，抗生素耐药性已成为一个公共卫生问题。水生环境在AR的发展和传播中发挥着至关重要的作用，它们从农业、水产养殖和废水处理厂等多个来源获得抗生素、抗生素抗性细菌（ARB）和抗生素抗性基因（ARGs）。建模是理解水生环境中AR的一种越来越重要的方法，有助于识别新出现的令人担忧的耐药性模式，评估命运和运输，评估感染风险，并研究其未来的管理。然而，目前的水质模型需要改进，以应对AR的发展和传播。优先开发AR的命运和运输模型可以为细菌进化提供见解，并有助于管理环境污染。本文通过简要回顾可用于在流域尺度上对水生环境中的AR进行建模和评估的方法和途径，提供了一个概念性的水质建模框架。需要建立一个框架的关键步骤包括确定来源和负载，模拟ARB的命运和运输，以及量化对人类和动物的相关风险。基于该框架制定建模情景和管理战略也有助于实现可持续发展目标3（良好健康和福祉）和6（清洁水和卫生）。
Abstract
In recent decades, antibiotic resistance (AR) has become a public health concern fuelled by increasing antibiotic consumption in many societies. Aquatic environments play a crucial role in AR development and spread where they receive antibiotics, antibiotic resistant bacteria (ARB) and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) from a number of sources such as agriculture, aquaculture and wastewater treatment plants. Modelling is an increasingly important approach to understanding AR in aquatic environments and helps identify resistance patterns of emerging concern, evaluate fate and transport, and assess infection risks as well as look into their management in the future. However, current water quality models need to be improved to deal with the development and spread of AR. Prioritising the development of fate and transport models for AR could provide insights into bacterial evolution and help manage environmental pollution. This article provides a conceptual water quality modelling framework through a concise review of methods and approaches that can be used to model and evaluate AR in aquatic environments at the watershed scale. The key steps that need to build a framework include identifying sources and loadings, modelling the fate and transport of ARB and quantifying associated risks to humans and animals. Developing modelling scenarios and management strategies based on the framework could also contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goals 3 (good health and well-being) and 6 (clean water and sanitation).

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666911022000090